What is mNAV? How market-to-Bitcoin-NAV values treasury companies, reading premiums and discounts, key variants, and the metric's honest limitations.
mNAV — market-to-Bitcoin-NAV — is the defining valuation metric of Bitcoin treasury companies. It compares what the market says a company is worth against the value of the bitcoin it holds: enterprise value (market capitalization plus debt, minus cash) divided by the current market value of its bitcoin. An mNAV of 1.0 means the market prices the company exactly at its coins; above 1.0 is a premium, below is a discount.
Take a company holding 50,000 BTC with bitcoin at $70,000: its Bitcoin NAV is $3.5 billion. If its enterprise value is $5.25 billion, mNAV is 1.5 — investors pay $1.50 for every $1.00 of bitcoin exposure. Why would anyone? Because a treasury company is a machine, not a vault: if management can issue stock at a premium and buy more bitcoin per share than the dilution costs, holders' sats per share grow — the accretive flywheel Strategy pioneered. The premium is, in effect, the market's price on management's ability to keep compounding bitcoin per share. A discount signals the opposite: doubt, leverage fear, or simple neglect — and invites arbitrage or activism, since the coins are worth more than the wrapper.
Every strategic question a treasury company faces routes through mNAV. Issue equity? Only accretive above 1.0. Buy back stock? Compelling below 1.0 — retiring shares below NAV grows everyone's bitcoin per share. Borrow against coins? mNAV determines whether markets will fund it. The 2026 drawdown, with bitcoin roughly halved from its late-2025 peak, compressed premiums across the sector and pushed weaker names below 1.0 — a stress test that separated durable operators from leveraged imitators, forcing sales at companies like Nakamoto and strategy pivots across our public companies index.
Analysts refine the headline number: fully diluted mNAV counts all potential shares from convertibles and options; forward mNAV projects announced purchases; and "months to cover mNAV" asks how long a company's current accumulation pace would take to justify its premium in coins. Each variant answers the same underlying question with different assumptions — is the premium earned or inherited? Sophisticated trackers publish several side by side precisely because a single figure can flatter or slander.
mNAV prices the bitcoin, not the business. Companies with real operations — an exchange like Bullish, miners like MARA, or Metaplanet with its income and securities arms — deserve value beyond their coins, which pure mNAV ignores. It also says nothing about custody quality, jurisdiction, or leverage structure. Treat it as the sector's common denominator, not a verdict.
mNAV is the honesty meter of the treasury era: it tells you whether you're buying bitcoin at par, at a premium for skill, or at a discount for doubt. Learn it before buying any ticker in this sector — including those in our guides to XXI and Metaplanet stock.
mNAV works alongside BTC Yield — valuation snapshot versus performance over time — and both rest on sats-per-share arithmetic. Apply the metric to real names on our public companies index, or through our practical guides to buying XXI and Metaplanet stock.